Bohemians 3-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Friday 12 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 1.40 PPG clear of Bohemians in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 65% versus Shamrock Rovers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 59% | Shamrock Rovers 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.12 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.201 / defence 1.314 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.970 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.157. Data: 34 Bohemians games / 34 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 29% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 45%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 2.22. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 70% | Shamrock Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 29% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.12 / Shamrock Rovers 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.201 / def 1.314 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.970 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Shamrock Rovers xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 November 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 3 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 29% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.20x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.97x) against Bohemians's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
29%
3.47
26%
3.86
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.60
1.48
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.48 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 13W 9D 12L from 34 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 5L across 34 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 12W 1D 4L across 17 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.65 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 23W 6D 5L in their last 34 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.65 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
1
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 65%, Shamrock Rovers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Bohemians) and 35% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Bohemians's recent matches and 41% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Bohemians's recent games and 35% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 3-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.12 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.48 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.20 / defence 1.31 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 29% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 45%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 59%, Shamrock Rovers 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.