St Patrick's Athl. 2-3 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Monday 3 June 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dundalk stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.80 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for Dundalk and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2024, ended St Patrick's Athl. 0–0 Dundalk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.78 xG and Dundalk 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.063 / defence 0.961 | Dundalk attack 0.814 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.020. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 56 games and Dundalk's last 54.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 23% | Dundalk 16%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.65 | Draw 4.37 | Dundalk 6.09. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 19 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 3 June 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 23% | Dundalk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.78 / Dundalk 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.063 / def 0.961 | Dundalk attack 0.814 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Monday 3 June 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 3 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 19) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 61% chance of winning, Dundalk a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.06x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 56 games and Dundalk's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.37
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.58
0.80
Dundalk xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
36.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.80 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 37W 12D 23L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 19L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Dundalk on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 20W 6D 10L from their last 36 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 12W 9D 15L across their last 36 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Dundalk.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-3 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.78 xG and Dundalk 0.80 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 23% | Dundalk 16%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.