Dundalk 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Dundalk take on Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derry City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Dundalk, 1.90 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Derry City hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Derry City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.65 xG and Derry City 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.749 / defence 0.800 | Derry City attack 0.912 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.008. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derry City's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Dundalk games / 55 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 28% | Draw 39% | Derry City 33%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Derry City 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.38. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.38 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 16% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 25% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 60% | Derry City 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 28% | Draw 39% | Derry City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Dundalk 0.65 / Derry City 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.749 / def 0.800 | Derry City attack 0.912 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Derry City xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 28% chance of winning, Derry City a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Record (4 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Derry City 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.75) and Derry City's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.91x) against Dundalk's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 53/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
39%
2.60
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.38
0.73
Derry City xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.03
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.1 | 18.4 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.73 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 34W 19D 19L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 36W 23D 13L from 72 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Dundalk against 1.82 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.11 PPG from 36 outings (22W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derry City have gone 19W 10D 7L from 36 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dundalk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 18, as Dundalk and Derry City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.65 xG and Derry City 0.73 xG, a combined 1.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.75 / defence 0.80 against Derry City attack 0.91 / defence 0.74, drawn from 53/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 28% | Draw 39% | Derry City 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 40% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.68 PPG, Derry City 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.