Drogheda United 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 June 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Drogheda United's home record at Weavers Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Drogheda United) versus 1.60 (St Patrick's Athl.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Drogheda United, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 0–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.56 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.185 / defence 1.378 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.915 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.032. Data: 55 Drogheda United games / 57 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jun 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Drogheda United 1.56 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.185 / def 1.378 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.915 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 June 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 43% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
43%
2.30
25%
4.04
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.30 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 19W 22D 31L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 37W 12D 23L from 72 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (12W 12D 12L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 6D 13L from 36 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 games (1.10 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.33 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 0-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.56 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.19 / defence 1.38 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 43% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.