🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG and Derry City 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Derry City attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Derry City 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights