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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 June 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 4 for Derry City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Derry City winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Derry City 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG and Derry City 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.085 / defence 0.924 | Derry City attack 0.943 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.102. Data: 58 St Patrick's Athl. games / 56 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Derry City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Derry City 30%.

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