St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Derry City 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derry City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Derry City attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Draw 27% | Derry City 23%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights