St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 2 for Derry City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / defence 1.091 | Derry City attack 0.954 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.083. Data: 39 St Patrick's Athl. games / 39 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Draw 27% | Derry City 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 4.35. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Derry City 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 3 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Draw 27% | Derry City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 / Derry City 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / def 1.091 | Derry City attack 0.954 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Derry City xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 3 March 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 0 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 50% chance of winning, Derry City a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Record (3 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 0 | Derry City 2W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.14) and Derry City's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.72
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.85
1.13
Derry City xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.13 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 13D 23L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (32W 24D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68 PPG, Derry City on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 21W 5D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.50 points per game from 36 outings (14W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.46 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Derry City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 44%; Derry City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 39% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Derry City 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derry City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Derry City attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Draw 27% | Derry City 23%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.