Sligo Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sligo Rovers take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
St Patrick's Athl. travel to The Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.743 / defence 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.798 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 0.898. Sligo Rovers's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 49 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 50.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.65 | Draw 2.56 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.31. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS Yes probability 29% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.63 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 71%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 10% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% (Under 81%) | BTTS Yes 29% (No 71%) | xG Sligo Rovers 0.88 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.743 / def 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.798 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.139 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 38% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (71%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (81%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.74x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 49 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.65
39%
2.56
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.51
0.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.47
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.63 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 17D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (37W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across their last 36 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 36 away games (17W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.