St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 6W 2D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Drogheda United's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG, Drogheda United 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Drogheda United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Drogheda United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.62 xG and Drogheda United 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.086 / defence 0.924 | Drogheda United attack 0.704 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 0.946. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 St Patrick's Athl. games / 48 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Drogheda United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.62 / Drogheda United 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.086 / def 0.924 | Drogheda United attack 0.704 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.188 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Drogheda United xG
38%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 61% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.09) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.80
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.24
0.61
Drogheda United xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
3%
39.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.61 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 12D 23L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.10 PPG from 72 outings (19W 22D 31L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 20W 6D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.86 points per game from 36 outings (7W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.03 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.86 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Drogheda United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 53% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 56% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 53% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Drogheda United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.62 xG and Drogheda United 0.61 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Drogheda United attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 13%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Drogheda United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.