Drogheda United 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 49%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Drogheda United vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 3W 4D 3L at Weavers Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dundalk arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Dundalk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dundalk have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.68 xG and Dundalk 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.250 / defence 1.295 | Dundalk attack 0.956 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 0.900. Data: 49 Drogheda United games / 49 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 4.17. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 50% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Drogheda United 1.68 / Dundalk 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.250 / def 1.295 | Dundalk attack 0.956 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.134 / away 0.900 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dundalk xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Record (4 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 3W.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.25x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.96x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.71
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.11
Dundalk xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.11 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 19W 22D 31L from 72 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 19L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 12W 12D 12L from 36 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 12W 9D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 games (1.10 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.33 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Dundalk 2-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.68 xG and Dundalk 1.11 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.25 / defence 1.29 against Dundalk attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.