📰

Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers and Derry City finished level at 0-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. It was 0-0 at the break. That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derry City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 36% | Derry City 38%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 74% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 62% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Derry City controlled the ball (51%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they could not turn the territory into the projected win. Derry City shot more often (10 to 7, 4 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights

📊 Statistics