Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
26%
3.88
36%
2.77
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.98
1.10
Derry City xG
Sligo RoversDrawDerry City
3.88
26%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
0.870
λ Away (xG)
1.105
Total xG
1.975
League avg home goals
1.382
League avg away goals
1.034
Sligo Rovers attack strength
0.748
Sligo Rovers defence strength
1.242
Derry City attack strength
0.860
Derry City defence strength
0.842
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
45 / 45