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Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Waterford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Waterford 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.66 xG and Waterford 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Waterford attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 35%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights