Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shelbourne — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 4W 3D 3L at Tolka Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Waterford's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shelbourne: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Waterford, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shelbourne trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Waterford trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 53% versus Waterford 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 35% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.66 xG and Waterford 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.998 / defence 1.031 | Waterford attack 1.007 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.035. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Shelbourne games / 67 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 4.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Waterford 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Shelbourne 1.66 / Waterford 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.998 / def 1.031 | Waterford attack 1.007 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Waterford xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Waterford kick off?
Shelbourne vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Waterford part of?
Shelbourne vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 50% chance of winning, Waterford a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shelbourne and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Record (6 meetings): Shelbourne 4W | Draws 1 | Waterford 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.00) and Waterford's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.78
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.73
1.07
Waterford xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.07 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 27W 25D 14L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 23W 9D 34L from 66 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Shelbourne are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.70 PPG from 33 outings (15W 11D 7L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 10W 4D 19L from 33 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 27W 25D 14L in their last 66 games (1.61 PPG), while Waterford have gone 23W 9D 34L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Waterford away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.70 PPG; Waterford away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shelbourne's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Waterford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 54%, Waterford 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shelbourne) and 48% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Waterford in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shelbourne's recent games and 48% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Waterford tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Waterford in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Waterford 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.66 xG and Waterford 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Waterford attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 35%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.