Finn Harps 1-3 UCD – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face UCD.

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Match Analysis

Finn Harps host UCD at Finn Park in Premier Division (matchday 35). Kick-off is Friday 28 October 2022 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Finn Harps — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Finn Harps have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, UCD stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Finn Harps at 0.80 PPG versus UCD's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Finn Harps have won 0, UCD 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2022, ended Finn Harps 1–2 UCD — a UCD win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

UCD in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 51% versus UCD 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 69% | UCD 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.40 xG and UCD 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.869 / defence 1.230 | UCD attack 0.677 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.067. UCD's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 70 games and UCD's last 34.

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 49% | Draw 28% | UCD 24%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.06 | Draw 3.61 | UCD 4.22. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 50% (last 10 home games) | UCD 30% (last 10 away games).

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