🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 3, as Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.43 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights