Shelbourne 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 50%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shelbourne lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 31% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.43 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.181 / defence 0.999 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.912 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.956. Data: 38 Shelbourne games / 37 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 23%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Shamrock Rovers 4.35. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Shelbourne 1.43 / Shamrock Rovers 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.181 / def 0.999 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.912 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shamrock Rovers xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 50% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (2 meetings): Shelbourne 1W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.18) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.91x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (38/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.71
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.30
0.87
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
6%
18.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.87 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 32W 27D 13L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 37W 22D 13L from 72 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.85 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (18W 13D 5L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 13D 8L from 36 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.62 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.86 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Shelbourne and 33% for Shamrock Rovers.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 47%; Shamrock Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 3, as Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.43 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.