Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Shelbourne, 2.20 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.20 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.041 / defence 0.987 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.991 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.083. Data: 37 Shelbourne games / 37 Shamrock Rovers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 37% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 30%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Shamrock Rovers 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 80% | Shamrock Rovers 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 37% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Shelbourne 1.20 / Shamrock Rovers 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.041 / def 0.987 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.991 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Shamrock Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 37% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.04) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
37%
2.72
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.26
1.06
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.06 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 26D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (14W 13D 9L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Shelbourne and 31% for Shamrock Rovers.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.20 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.06 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 37% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 30%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Shelbourne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.