Sligo Rovers 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sligo Rovers take on Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Showgrounds plays host to Sligo Rovers versus Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sligo Rovers have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Shelbourne in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.830 / defence 0.816 | Shelbourne attack 0.972 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.248. Data: 38 Sligo Rovers games / 38 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 29% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 34%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Shelbourne 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 10% | Shelbourne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 29% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.90 / Shelbourne 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.830 / def 0.816 | Shelbourne attack 0.972 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shelbourne xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 March 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 29% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.97x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.41
36%
2.75
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.89
0.99
Shelbourne xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.99 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 17D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.40 PPG from 72 outings (25W 26D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.40 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.28 points per game from 36 outings (11W 13D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shelbourne away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sligo Rovers 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 33% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shelbourne in 39%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 33% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 0.99 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Shelbourne attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 29% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.24 PPG, Shelbourne 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.