Waterford 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 1). Kick-off is Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.13 xG and Shelbourne 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.069. Data: built from Waterford's last 0 games and Shelbourne's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.39 | Shelbourne 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 2 games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Waterford 0 games, Shelbourne 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 1 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Waterford 1.13 / Shelbourne 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shelbourne xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 1) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 0 games and Shelbourne's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.39
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.44
1.31
Shelbourne xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Waterford and 1.31 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 3.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Shelbourne's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Shelbourne
Early Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Early Season
Shelbourne
Early Season
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Waterford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shelbourne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Waterford's games and 100% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waterford's matches and 100% of Shelbourne's.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 100% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, as Waterford and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.13 xG and Shelbourne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shelbourne attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Shelbourne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shelbourne managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.