Waterford 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 1 as Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.13 xG and Shelbourne 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.069. Data: 0 Waterford games / 36 Shelbourne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Shelbourne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.13 / Shelbourne 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shelbourne xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.39
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.44
1.31
Shelbourne xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Waterford and 1.31 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shelbourne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 3.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Shelbourne's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Shelbourne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Shelbourne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Waterford's games and 100% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waterford's matches and 100% of Shelbourne's.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, as Waterford and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.13 xG and Shelbourne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shelbourne attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 40%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Shelbourne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shelbourne managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.