Shelbourne 1-1 Galway United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shelbourne at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Galway United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Galway United travel to Tolka Park to take on Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shelbourne stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Galway United — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Galway United have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Shelbourne are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Shelbourne, 1 for Galway United and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Sep 2025, ended Shelbourne 1–0 Galway United — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Galway United in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Galway United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 38% | Galway United 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.22 xG and Galway United 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.058 / defence 0.963 | Galway United attack 0.903 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.116. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 37 games and Galway United's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 40% | Draw 32% | Galway United 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.49 | Draw 3.09 | Galway United 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shelbourne's last 10 home games and Galway United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 60% (last 10 home games) | Galway United 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shelbourne 37 games, Galway United 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 40% | Draw 32% | Galway United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Shelbourne 1.22 / Galway United 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.058 / def 0.963 | Galway United attack 0.903 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Galway United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Galway United kick off?
Shelbourne vs Galway United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Galway United.
Where is Shelbourne vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Galway United part of?
Shelbourne vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 40% chance of winning, Galway United a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shelbourne and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Shelbourne vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Galway United's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 37 games and Galway United's last 37, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.09
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.19
0.97
Galway United xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.97 for Galway United, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne come into this having played 72 games, going 32W 26D 14L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Galway United sit at 1.26 PPG from 72 outings (22W 25D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Galway United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shelbourne's home form reads 17W 12D 7L across their last 36 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Galway United have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 14D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Galway United are on 0.97 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Galway United in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Galway United have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Galway United away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Galway United away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Galway United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Galway United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 25 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
7
Draws
1
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 2, Galway United have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 September 2026: Galway United 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Galway United?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Galway United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Shelbourne and 25% for Galway United.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Galway United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Galway United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 44% of Galway United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Galway United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 25% of Galway United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Galway United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 61% of Galway United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Galway United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Galway United finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.22 xG and Galway United 0.97 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Galway United attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 40% | Draw 32% | Galway United 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Galway United 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Galway United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.