Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shamrock Rovers face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Waterford have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shamrock Rovers have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Shamrock Rovers: 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Waterford, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2026, ended Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Waterford — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Shamrock Rovers an edge — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.70 xG and Waterford 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.199 / defence 0.819 | Waterford attack 0.913 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.160. Waterford's defence rating of 1.527 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 49 games and Waterford's last 48.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.33 | Draw 6.41 | Waterford 11.15. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (75%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.70 / Waterford 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.199 / def 0.819 | Waterford attack 0.913 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Waterford xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 75% chance of winning, Waterford a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.20) and Waterford's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 49 games and Waterford's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.41
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.57
0.87
Waterford xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
7%
14.86
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
165.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.87 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 36W 19D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 25W 11D 36L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 36 home games (21W 9D 6L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 11W 5D 20L from their last 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
0
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 9, Waterford have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shamrock Rovers and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Waterford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 81% of Waterford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.70 xG and Waterford 0.87 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Waterford attack 0.91 / defence 1.53, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.