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Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.52 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.25 / defence 0.76 against Derry City attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 26% | Derry City 18%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 51%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Derry City's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.80 PPG, Derry City 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights