🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shamrock Rovers face Derry City.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium.

Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derry City away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

The historical record gives Shamrock Rovers a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Derry City 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 51% | Derry City 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.52 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.247 / defence 0.758 | Derry City attack 0.884 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.082. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Shamrock Rovers games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 26% | Derry City 18%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights