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Stalemate at Shamrock Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Shamrock Rovers and Derry City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Derry City attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 31% | Derry City 22%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights