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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shamrock Rovers face Derry City.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Derry City away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Derry City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 2W, Derry City 0W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | Derry City 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.025 / defence 0.837 | Derry City attack 0.845 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.089. Data: 41 Shamrock Rovers games / 42 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 31% | Derry City 22%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 4.55. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 30% | Derry City 30% BTTS from recent games.

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