Longford Town 1-4 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Longford Town face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Friday 29 October 2021 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Longford Town (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Longford Town have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, St Patrick's Athl. are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to St Patrick's Athl., who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2021, ended Longford Town 2–3 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
The H2H data backs the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Longford Town — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 45% versus St Patrick's Athl. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.82 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.599 / defence 1.482 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.894 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.138. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.599 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.482 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 31 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 31.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.88 | Draw 3.83 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.87. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Longford Town 40% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 33 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Longford Town 0.82 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.599 / def 1.482 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.894 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.51
St Patrick's Athl. xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 29 October 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Longford Town 1 - 4 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 33) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 20% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.89x) against Longford Town's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 31 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
20%
4.88
26%
3.83
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.33
1.51
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
5%
22.06
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.51 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Longford Town come into this having played 31 games, going 2W 8D 21L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (17W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Longford Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Longford Town's home form reads 2W 3D 11L across their last 16 home games, a 0.56 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 16 away games (5W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Longford Town are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Longford Town (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 21L in their last 31 games (0.45 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 5D 9L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.56 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Longford Town or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Longford Town have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl., the earliest from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 29 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Longford Town on 30 Apr 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2021: Longford Town 1-4 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 31%, St Patrick's Athl. 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Longford Town) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Longford Town's recent matches and 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Longford Town's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Longford Town's recent matches and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Longford Town 1-4 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.82 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.51 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.48 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 20% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Longford Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.