Dundalk 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 44%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dundalk's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Oriel Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Waterford — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waterford — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dundalk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Waterford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 0, Waterford 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 68% versus Waterford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 52% | Waterford 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.45 xG and Waterford 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.086 / defence 1.184 | Waterford attack 0.841 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.176. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Dundalk games / 31 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Waterford 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Waterford 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Waterford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 1.45 / Waterford 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.086 / def 1.184 | Waterford attack 0.841 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Waterford xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Waterford kick off?
Dundalk vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Dundalk vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Waterford part of?
Dundalk vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 44% chance of winning, Waterford a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Waterford 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.09) and Waterford's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.86
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.62
1.17
Waterford xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.17 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 8D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (12W 3D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.23 PPG, Waterford on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dundalk's home form reads 7W 2D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (6W 1D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 games (1.23 PPG), while Waterford have gone 12W 3D 16L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Waterford away?
Dundalk's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.53 PPG; Waterford away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, Waterford have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 73%, Waterford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dundalk and 67% for Waterford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waterford in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Dundalk's games and 53% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dundalk's matches and 67% of Waterford's.
Do Dundalk and Waterford tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Waterford in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Waterford 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.45 xG and Waterford 1.17 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Waterford 30%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 52%, Waterford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Waterford's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.23 PPG, Waterford 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.