Derry City 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus Bohemians 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 45% | Bohemians 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.075 / defence 1.025 | Bohemians attack 0.998 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.176. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Derry City games / 31 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 30%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 3.33. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 50% | Bohemians 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Derry City 1.52 / Bohemians 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.075 / def 1.025 | Bohemians attack 0.998 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Derry City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 October 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.00x) against Derry City's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.95
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Bohemians xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Derry City and 1.20 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 12W 9D 10L from 31 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 12L across 31 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Derry City against 1.39 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 5W 7D 3L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 12W 9D 10L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.47 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Bohemians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 60%, Bohemians 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Derry City) and 47% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Derry City's games and 60% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Derry City's recent games and 47% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 45% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 30%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 45%, Bohemians 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.45 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.