Longford Town 0-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Longford Town host Sligo Rovers at Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 3 July 2021 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Longford Town — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Longford Town's home record over their last 9 home games: 1W 2D 6L (0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Sligo Rovers have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 1L across their last 9 road games (2.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sligo Rovers are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Longford Town, 2 for Sligo Rovers and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2021, ended Longford Town 0–2 Sligo Rovers — a Sligo Rovers win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Longford Town in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sligo Rovers in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 50% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Longford Town 44% | Sligo Rovers 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.69 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.664 / defence 1.406 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.841 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.271. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sligo Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 18 games and Sligo Rovers's last 18.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 56%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 6.29 | Draw 3.55 | Sligo Rovers 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Sligo Rovers (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Longford Town 33% (last 9 home games) | Sligo Rovers 56% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 19 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 July 2021 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Longford Town 0.69 / Sligo Rovers 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.664 / def 1.406 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.841 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sligo Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Longford Town 0 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 19) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 16% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Longford Town's attack at 0.66x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 18 games and Sligo Rovers's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
16%
6.29
28%
3.55
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.19
1.50
Sligo Rovers xG
6.29
16%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
50%
1.98
Win to Nil
4%
28.27
28%
3.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 16.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.50 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Longford Town have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 6D 11L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Sligo Rovers are the form team by 1.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Longford Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Longford Town have posted 0.56 PPG from their last 9 home games (1W 2D 6L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 6W 2D 1L from their last 9 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Longford Town are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.44 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Longford Town (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Longford Town and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 1W 6D 11L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.56 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Longford Town or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Longford Town have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 1 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sligo Rovers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Longford Town's record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Sligo Rovers have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2021: Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Sligo Rovers?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 33%, Sligo Rovers 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Longford Town) and 33% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Longford Town have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Longford Town and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Longford Town's recent matches and 56% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Longford Town and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Longford Town's recent games and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Longford Town's recent matches and 67% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Longford Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 0-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.69 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.50 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.66 / defence 1.41 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 16% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 56%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 44%, Sligo Rovers 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.