Sligo Rovers 4-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.972 / defence 0.918 | Bohemians attack 0.749 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.297. Data: 17 Sligo Rovers games / 17 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.03 / Bohemians 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.972 / def 0.918 | Bohemians attack 0.749 / def 1.083 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bohemians xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 June 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 4 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.75x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
36%
2.76
35%
2.87
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.92
0.89
Bohemians xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.89 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Sligo Rovers run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 4-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Bohemians attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 29%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.