Derry City 2-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derry City — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 0W 6D 3L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's away record: 3W 0D 6L from 9 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
On current form, Derry City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Derry City in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 72% versus Waterford 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 39% | Waterford 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.26 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.858 / defence 1.229 | Waterford attack 0.782 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.281. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Derry City games / 18 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 36% | Draw 30% | Waterford 34%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Waterford 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 89% | Waterford 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 36% | Draw 30% | Waterford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Derry City 1.26 / Waterford 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.858 / def 1.229 | Waterford attack 0.782 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Derry City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Waterford xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 July 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 2 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 36% chance of winning, Waterford a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Derry City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.34
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.23
Waterford xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Derry City and 1.23 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 5W 7D 6L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford's form line: 4W 1D 13L from 18 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derry City have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (0W 6D 3L). That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Waterford have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 0.72 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Waterford have gone 4W 1D 13L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 0.67 PPG; Waterford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Derry City
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 6, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derry City at 89%, Waterford at 44%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Derry City) and 78% (Waterford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waterford in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Derry City's games and 44% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Derry City's matches and 78% of Waterford's.
Do Derry City and Waterford tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Waterford in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 2-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.26 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waterford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Waterford attack 0.78 / defence 1.44, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 36% | Draw 30% | Waterford 34%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 39%, Waterford 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Waterford's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.