Longford Town 2-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 48% as Longford Town take on Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Longford Town welcome Derry City to Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.71 xG and Derry City 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Derry City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.508. Data: built from Longford Town's last 0 games and Derry City's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.06 | Draw 2.09 | Derry City 5.14. The draw (48%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS Yes probability 23% | Total xG 1.20. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.20 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.50 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 48% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 19% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.20 combined xG gives a 88% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Longford Town 0 games, Derry City 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 1 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% (Under 88%) | BTTS Yes 23% (No 77%) | xG Longford Town 0.71 / Derry City 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Derry City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Derry City xG
23%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Derry City kick off?
Longford Town vs Derry City kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Longford Town 2 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Longford Town vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Derry City part of?
Longford Town vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 1) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 33% chance of winning, Derry City a 19% chance, and a 48% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Longford Town and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (77%).
Will Longford Town vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (88%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 0 games and Derry City's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 31.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Longford Town xG
Total xG
1.20
0.50
Derry City xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.09
48%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
34%
Over 1.5
2.94
66%
Under 1.5
1.52
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.35
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.0 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.4%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Longford Town and 0.50 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Derry City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Longford Town's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
1
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 1, Derry City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2021: Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Longford Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Longford Town beat Derry City 2-0 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.71 xG and Derry City 0.50 xG, a combined 1.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Longford Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Derry City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19%, with the draw its most likely call at 48%. The actual Longford Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 37% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.