Shamrock Rovers 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 1 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 March 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 0.71 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Shamrock Rovers games / 0 St Patrick's Athl. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 25% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Shamrock Rovers's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 25% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Shamrock Rovers 0.71 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.03
St Patrick's Athl. xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 March 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 25% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (0.85) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
25%
4.06
33%
3.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.73
1.03
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.03 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 0.71 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.03 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 25% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.