Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 48% as Sligo Rovers take on Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.71 xG and Dundalk 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Sligo Rovers games / 0 Dundalk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 48% | Dundalk 19%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.03 | Draw 2.08 | Dundalk 5.26. The draw (48%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.20. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.20 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 48% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 19% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 12% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 48% | Dundalk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 23% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.71 / Dundalk 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Dundalk xG
23%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 33% chance of winning, Dundalk a 19% chance, and a 48% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.85x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 31.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.20
0.50
Dundalk xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.09
48%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
34%
Over 1.5
2.94
66%
Under 1.5
1.52
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.35
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.0 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.4%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.50 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sligo Rovers and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.71 xG and Dundalk 0.50 xG, a combined 1.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dundalk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 48% | Dundalk 19%, with the draw its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 37% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.