UCD 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Shamrock Rovers.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

UCD and Shamrock Rovers meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

UCD's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

UCD's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Shamrock Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 1.00 PPG clear of UCD over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Shamrock Rovers, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2022, ended UCD 0–1 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.

Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 50% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.78 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.775 / defence 1.374 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.993 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.085. UCD's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.710, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling UCD's projected output down. UCD's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 35 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 71.

Result probabilities: UCD 20% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 54%. Fair-value odds: UCD 5.08 | Draw 3.78 | Shamrock Rovers 1.86. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 60% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).

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