Finn Harps 0-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 61%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Finn Harps vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Finn Harps host UCD at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Finn Park, Finn Harps have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier Division matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour UCD — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 0 for UCD and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 2.01 xG and UCD 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.841 / defence 1.088 | UCD attack 0.731 / defence 1.824. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.209. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.824 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Finn Harps games / 14 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | UCD 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Finn Harps (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Finn Harps 2.01 / UCD 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.841 / def 1.088 | UCD attack 0.731 / def 1.824 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.96
UCD xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs UCD kick off?
Finn Harps vs UCD kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps 0 - 1 UCD.
Where is Finn Harps vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs UCD part of?
Finn Harps vs UCD is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 61% chance of winning, UCD a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Finn Harps and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and UCD?
Record (1 meetings): Finn Harps 0W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Finn Harps and UCD in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.84) and UCD's defence rating (1.82), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.57
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.97
0.96
UCD xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
43.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.96 for UCD, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Finn Harps, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 3.00 PPG, UCD on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 5.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Finn Harps's scoring rate against UCD's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Defensively: Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and UCD in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Finn Harps or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, UCD in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
UCD go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Finn Harps's record when hosting UCD specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Finn Harps
1
Draws
3
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and UCD?
From 4 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 0, UCD have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and UCD?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 100% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Finn Harps's matches and 100% of UCD's.
Do Finn Harps and UCD tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Finn Harps 0-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 2.01 xG and UCD 0.96 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against UCD attack 0.73 / defence 1.82, drawn from 50/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a UCD win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 100%, UCD 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 3.00 PPG, UCD 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the UCD win broke the near-deadlock. Finn Harps managed 0 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.