Shelbourne 1-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Drogheda United's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.39 xG and Drogheda United 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.794 / defence 1.418 | Drogheda United attack 1.056 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.254. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shelbourne games / 50 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 27% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 48%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Drogheda United 2.08. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 27% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Shelbourne 1.39 / Drogheda United 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.794 / def 1.418 | Drogheda United attack 1.056 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Drogheda United xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Drogheda United kick off?
Shelbourne vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United part of?
Shelbourne vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 27% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Shelbourne and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Drogheda United in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Drogheda United away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.79) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.06x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 14/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
27%
3.70
25%
3.96
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
3.26
1.88
Drogheda United xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
4%
24.19
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.88 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Drogheda United have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Drogheda United 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Drogheda United 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.39 xG and Drogheda United 1.88 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.79 / defence 1.42 against Drogheda United attack 1.06 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 27% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 48%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.