Dundalk 3-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Dundalk's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 64% and Bohemians 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Bohemians 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.291 / defence 0.786 | Bohemians attack 1.038 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.254. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Dundalk games / 50 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Bohemians 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Dundalk 1.41 / Bohemians 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.291 / def 0.786 | Bohemians attack 1.038 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 3 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.29) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.04x) against Dundalk's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.29
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.02
Bohemians xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.02 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dundalk against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (9W 2D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.67 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bohemians in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Dundalk, 67% for Bohemians — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 44% (Bohemians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 67% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 44% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 3-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1.02 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.29 / defence 0.79 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 44% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Bohemians 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.