Finn Harps 0-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Finn Harps take on Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Finn Harps stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps at Finn Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Shamrock Rovers's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Finn Harps, 2 for Shamrock Rovers and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.963 / defence 1.093 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.884 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.027. Data: 42 Finn Harps games / 43 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 33% | Draw 35% | Shamrock Rovers 32%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Shamrock Rovers 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Finn Harps 70% | Shamrock Rovers 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 33% | Draw 35% | Shamrock Rovers 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Finn Harps 1.00 / Shamrock Rovers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.963 / def 1.093 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.884 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Finn Harps 0 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 33% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (4 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 2W.
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
35%
2.84
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.99
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.99 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 12W 1D 5L from 18 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
1
Draws
6
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 44%; Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Finn Harps 0-3 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Finn Harps fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 33% | Draw 35% | Shamrock Rovers 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.