Bohemians 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 3D 2L at Dalymount Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians, 1.60 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Derry City in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Derry City 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Derry City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.40 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.154 / defence 1.044 | Derry City attack 1.098 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.016. Data: 42 Bohemians games / 42 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 40% | Draw 31% | Derry City 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Derry City 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 40% | Draw 31% | Derry City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Bohemians 1.40 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.154 / def 1.044 | Derry City attack 1.098 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 40% chance of winning, Derry City a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.10x) against Bohemians's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.23
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.56
1.17
Derry City xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 10L across 36 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.50 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.36 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Derry City in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Derry City away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Derry City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bohemians and 50% for Derry City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 61% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bohemians's matches and 50% of Derry City's.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Derry City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.40 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Derry City attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 40% | Draw 31% | Derry City 29%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Derry City 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.