Shelbourne 1-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.55 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.606 / defence 1.385 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.043 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.114. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Shelbourne games / 44 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 11% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 62%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 9.09 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Shelbourne's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 11% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 35% | xG Shelbourne 0.55 / Shamrock Rovers 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.606 / def 1.385 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.043 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Shamrock Rovers xG
35%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 11% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 62% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Shamrock Rovers away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.61) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.04x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 8/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
11%
8.80
26%
3.80
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.9%
Away win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.16
1.61
Shamrock Rovers xG
8.80
11%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
2%
44.04
36%
2.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.61 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Shelbourne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.55 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.61 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.61 / defence 1.39 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 8/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 11% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 62%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.