Finn Harps 0-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dundalk travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Monday 23 May 2022 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Dundalk's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2022, ended Finn Harps 0–3 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 61% and Dundalk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.82 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.703 / defence 1.109 | Dundalk attack 0.888 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.182. Finn Harps's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 52 games and Dundalk's last 52.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 26% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 44%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 3.89 | Draw 3.29 | Dundalk 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 70% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 17 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 26% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Finn Harps 0.82 / Dundalk 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.703 / def 1.109 | Dundalk attack 0.888 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dundalk xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Dundalk kick off?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 23 May 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Finn Harps 0 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Finn Harps vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Dundalk part of?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 17) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 26% chance of winning, Dundalk a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Finn Harps and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Finn Harps vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.70x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 52 games and Dundalk's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
26%
3.89
30%
3.29
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.98
1.17
Dundalk xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.17 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.22 PPG, Dundalk on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 4W 7D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dundalk in 64%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Dundalk away?
Finn Harps's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 14 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dundalk have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and Dundalk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Finn Harps's games and 61% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Finn Harps and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 83% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Finn Harps 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 0-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.82 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Dundalk attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 26% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 44%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.22 PPG, Dundalk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.