Derry City 1-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 20 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 61% and Dundalk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.53 xG and Dundalk 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.283 / defence 0.791 | Dundalk attack 0.768 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.226. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derry City's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Derry City games / 51 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 56% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 18%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 40% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 56% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Derry City 1.53 / Dundalk 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.283 / def 0.791 | Dundalk attack 0.768 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Derry City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dundalk xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Dundalk kick off?
Derry City vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 May 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 1 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Dundalk part of?
Derry City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 56% chance of winning, Dundalk a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Derry City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.28) and Dundalk's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.77x) against Derry City's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.80
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.28
0.74
Dundalk xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Derry City and 0.74 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 14L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Derry City against 1.33 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 4W 7D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dundalk in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Dundalk away?
Derry City's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.44 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
5
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Dundalk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 61%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derry City's games and 61% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Dundalk tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.53 xG and Dundalk 0.74 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.28 / defence 0.79 against Dundalk attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 56% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 18%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.50 PPG, Dundalk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.