Dundalk 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dundalk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 64% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.25 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.354 / defence 0.834 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.110 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.180. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Dundalk games / 54 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Dundalk 1.25 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.354 / def 0.834 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.110 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 May 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 40% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.35x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.58
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.35
1.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.09 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 9D 14L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.72 PPG from 36 outings (18W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.33 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 9W 2D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dundalk at 67%, St Patrick's Athl. at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.25 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.35 / defence 0.83 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 0.70, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 40% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.