Dundalk 2-3 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Oriel Park this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waterford — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 2, Waterford 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Waterford in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Waterford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 28% | Waterford 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.31 xG and Waterford 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.054 / defence 1.001 | Waterford attack 0.956 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.249. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Dundalk games / 57 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 61% | Draw 21% | Waterford 18%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Waterford 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 68% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 20% | Waterford 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jun 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 61% | Draw 21% | Waterford 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Dundalk 2.31 / Waterford 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.054 / def 1.001 | Waterford attack 0.956 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Waterford xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Waterford kick off?
Dundalk vs Waterford kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 26 June 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk 2 - 3 Waterford.
Where is Dundalk vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Waterford part of?
Dundalk vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 61% chance of winning, Waterford a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dundalk and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 3 | Waterford 4W.
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.05) and Waterford's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.76
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.51
1.20
Waterford xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
2%
57.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.20 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk come into this having played 36 games, going 5W 11D 20L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (11W 6D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 0.72 PPG, Waterford on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dundalk's home form reads 4W 5D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (5W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.11 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Waterford have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Waterford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, Waterford have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dundalk 11% BTTS, Waterford 56%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 50% for Waterford.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Waterford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 56% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Waterford tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Waterford in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Dundalk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 2-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.31 xG and Waterford 1.20 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Waterford attack 0.96 / defence 1.47, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 61% | Draw 21% | Waterford 18%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Waterford 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 0.72 PPG, Waterford 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.