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Poisson model favours Bohemians (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face Dundalk.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Dundalk (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Bohemians's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Dundalk and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Bohemians winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bohemians — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 42% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 47% | Dundalk 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.56 xG and Dundalk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.940 / defence 1.060 | Dundalk attack 0.953 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.220. Data: 57 Bohemians games / 20 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Dundalk 60%.

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