Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Longford Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Longford Town travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Dundalk have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Longford Town stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dundalk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Longford Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dundalk, 1 for Longford Town and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Longford Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dundalk in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Longford Town in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 64% versus Longford Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 48% | Longford Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.76 xG and Longford Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.070 / defence 1.079 | Longford Town attack 0.606 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.170. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Dundalk games / 33 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Longford Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 70% | Longford Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Dundalk 1.76 / Longford Town 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.070 / def 1.079 | Longford Town attack 0.606 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Longford Town xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Longford Town kick off?
Dundalk vs Longford Town kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Dundalk vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Longford Town part of?
Dundalk vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 61% chance of winning, Longford Town a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dundalk and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Longford Town?
Record (3 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 2 | Longford Town 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Longford Town in?
Dundalk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Longford Town (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.07x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.34
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.77
Longford Town xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
3%
36.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.77 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk's recent record stands at 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Longford Town, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 23L across 33 games — 0.42 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 8W 2D 6L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Longford Town's away record stands at 0W 5D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.64 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Longford Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 23L in their last 33 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Longford Town away?
Dundalk's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.62 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Longford Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dundalk's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Longford Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 69%, Longford Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 44% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Longford Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Longford Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dundalk's games and 56% of Longford Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Longford Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 44% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Longford Town tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Longford Town in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Longford Town 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.76 xG and Longford Town 0.77 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Longford Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.55, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 16%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 48%, Longford Town 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Longford Town's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.