Waterford 1-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waterford have posted 5W 3D 2L at Waterford Regional Sports Centre — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 48% versus Shamrock Rovers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 54% | Shamrock Rovers 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.03 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.108 / defence 1.268 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.877 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.117. Data: 33 Waterford games / 33 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 70% | Shamrock Rovers 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Waterford 1.03 / Shamrock Rovers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.108 / def 1.268 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.877 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (1.11) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.53
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Waterford and 1.24 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 4D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 2.18 PPG from 33 outings (22W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Waterford's home form reads 6W 3D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Shamrock Rovers have taken 2.12 points per game from 16 outings (11W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.61 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 12W 4D 17L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 22W 6D 5L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.31 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
1
Draws
8
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 50%, Shamrock Rovers 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waterford) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 38% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-3 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.03 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.11 / defence 1.27 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 41%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 54%, Shamrock Rovers 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.